You placed a bet and the situation changed: your team is up in a two-legged tie, your outright pick reached the final, or the price moved hard in your favour. Enter the numbers and this calculator shows the exact opposite stake that guarantees the same profit no matter what happens.
Your original bet, then the decimal odds now available on the opposite outcome (at any bookmaker or exchange).
Hedge stake = (original stake × original odds) / hedge odds
You staked 100 at 4.50 and the other side is now 1.60. Hedge stake = 100 × 4.50 / 1.60 = 281.25. If your original bet wins: 350 profit minus 281.25 = 68.75. If the hedge wins: 281.25 × 0.60 = 168.75 minus your original 100 = 68.75. Identical either way.
The guaranteed profit is positive whenever the two implied probabilities sum to less than 100%: in other words, whenever 1/original odds + 1/hedge odds < 1. The further the price has moved since you bet, the more you lock in.
A bookmaker cash-out button is a hedge the bookmaker prices for you, with their margin taken out of your side. When a cash-out offer appears, put the same numbers into this calculator using the best available odds on the opposite outcome. The manual hedge beats the cash-out offer in the large majority of cases, often by 5 to 10% of the locked amount, because you shop the hedge price across the whole market instead of accepting one book's internal price.
The comparison takes thirty seconds: cash-out offer versus guaranteed profit shown here. Take whichever is higher, and check the no-vig calculator if you want to see exactly how much margin the cash-out price is hiding.
Every hedge sacrifices expected value for certainty. If your original bet was placed at fair or better odds, the hedge leg is a new bet placed at odds that include someone's margin, and that margin comes out of your locked profit. Three honest rules:
Hedge when the money matters. If the swing between winning and losing changes something real for you, take the guarantee. Certainty has a price and it is often worth paying.
Do not hedge tiny positions out of nerves. Over a season of small hedges you simply donate the margin on every hedge leg. A flat-staking plan handles variance better; our staking plans guide covers the options.
Partial hedges exist. Halve the hedge stake shown and you lock half the guarantee while keeping half the upside. The math scales linearly, so a 50% hedge locks exactly half the profit figure this calculator reports on the hedge side.
How do I calculate a hedge bet?
Multiply your original stake by your original decimal odds, then divide by the odds now available on the opposite outcome. That is the hedge stake giving equal profit however the event ends.
Is hedging better than cash-out?
Usually yes. Cash-out is a hedge priced by one bookmaker with their margin included. Hedging manually at the best market price typically returns more; compare both numbers before deciding.
Can a hedge guarantee a profit?
Only if the price moved in your favour after you bet. The guarantee is positive when 1/original odds plus 1/hedge odds is less than 1. If the price moved against you, hedging locks in a smaller loss instead.
Should I always hedge a winning position?
No. Hedging trades expected value for certainty, because the hedge leg pays someone else's margin. Hedge when the amount is meaningful to you; let small positions ride under a sensible staking plan.
What is a partial hedge?
Betting less than the full equal-profit stake. Half the calculated hedge stake locks in half the guaranteed profit and keeps half your original upside. It is the standard compromise for big outright positions.
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