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Convert betting odds into implied probability. Add your own estimate to see if the bet has value.
See how likely a bookmaker thinks an outcome is based on the odds.
Every set of odds contains a hidden probability. Understanding it helps you separate good bets from bad ones.
Bookmakers set odds based on how likely they think each outcome is. Lower odds mean a higher implied chance of happening.
Implied probability = (1 / decimal odds) × 100. Odds of 2.00 give 50%. Odds of 1.50 give 66.7%. Odds of 4.00 give 25%.
If you think a team has a 60% chance to win but the odds imply 50%, the 10% gap is your edge. That is a value bet.
Implied probabilities for all outcomes in a market add up to more than 100%. The excess is the bookmaker's built-in margin.
When your estimated probability is higher than the implied probability, you have found a value bet worth taking.
Odds of 1.80 do not mean much on their own. Knowing it implies a 55.6% chance makes the bet much easier to evaluate.
Add up implied probabilities across all outcomes to see the bookmaker's margin. Lower margin means better odds for you.
The probability bar and edge calculation make it easy to see at a glance whether a bet offers value or not.
Implied probability shows how likely a bookmaker thinks an outcome is, based on the odds. Calculated as 1 / decimal odds × 100. Odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance.
Divide 1 by the decimal odds and multiply by 100. For odds of 1.50: 1 / 1.50 × 100 = 66.7%. For odds of 3.00: 1 / 3.00 × 100 = 33.3%.
A value bet exists when you believe the true probability of an outcome is higher than what the odds imply. If odds imply 40% but you estimate 55%, the difference is your edge.
Bookmakers build in a margin (overround) to guarantee profit. The excess above 100% when you add all outcomes is the bookmaker's edge, typically between 2% and 10%.
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