Implied probability is the chance of an outcome the bookmaker's odds say will happen. Computing it is one number. Reading it is where the value lives. Cover the math, see worked examples, and learn how to spot when the historical rate beats the implied.
Implied probability is calculated from decimal odds as: 100 / decimal odds. So 2.00 decimal odds = 50% implied probability. 1.50 = 67%. 3.00 = 33%. The lower the odds, the higher the implied probability the bookmaker is pricing in.
Bookmakers stack their margin (vig) on top: across 1X2 markets, the three implied probabilities typically sum to 105-110% rather than the fair 100%. The 5-10% difference is the bookmaker's built-in edge. To get the bookmaker's TRUE probability estimate, divide each implied probability by the sum. A bet is value when historical or stat-based probability beats the true probability by a meaningful margin.
See the live list at /tips-today, refreshed every morning around 06:00 CET.
Not as a standalone tool. The bookmaker's price reflects their model plus their margin. Compare to your own stat-based probability for the edge calculation.
Vig raises all implied probabilities slightly. To remove it, divide each implied by the sum of all outcomes. The result is the bookmaker's 'fair' estimate.
Heavy favourite: 65-80% home win, 15-25% draw, 5-15% away. Even match: 35-40% home, 25-30% draw, 30-40% away.
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