Both Teams to Score is the most popular alternative football market. It is also one of the easiest markets to find systematic value in because the four drivers (scoring rate, conceding rate, tactical setup, match importance) are publicly available and slow to price. Here is the full methodology.
See today's picks nowBoth Teams to Score (BTTS) pays out if both teams score at least one goal during the match. It is a 2-way market: Yes (both teams score) or No (one or both teams fail to score). Own goals count for the scoring team. Penalties scored in regulation time count; penalty shootouts in cup ties do not.
BTTS is one of the most popular alternative markets in football because it removes the bettor from the 3-way 1X2 complexity and reframes the question as a single binary outcome. The combined implied probabilities of BTTS Yes and BTTS No across both options is typically 105 to 108 percent, meaning a bookmaker margin of 5 to 8 percent. Lower than 1X2 but higher than Asian Total.
The base rate: Across the Premier League season just completed, BTTS Yes hit in 53 percent of all matches. The Bundesliga ran higher at 58 percent. La Liga ran lower at 49 percent. The base rate matters when evaluating any specific BTTS price.
The simplest indicator. If team A has scored in 9 of their last 10 matches and team B has scored in 8 of their last 10, the joint probability of both scoring is structurally high.
If both back lines have conceded in 8 of their last 10, the BTTS-friendly conditions on the defensive side are also high. Concession rate is independent of scoring rate and both matter.
Pressing teams that play 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 with attacking width score more and concede more than possession-based 3-5-2 or 5-4-1 systems. Tactical compatibility matters.
Mid-table matches with no relegation or European stakes tend to be more open than relegation six-pointers, where both teams play conservatively. Late-season open matches have higher BTTS rates.
BTTS No bets win when at least one team fails to score. The market systematically underprices BTTS No in three specific situations.
Defensive vs minnow: When a top-quality defensive side (Atletico Madrid, Brentford, Inter) faces a low-scoring underdog, the BTTS No price often offers value. The defensive side keeps a clean sheet in 35 to 50 percent of matches.
Weather and pitch conditions: Heavy rain reduces expected goals across both teams. If the weather forecast is poor, the BTTS No price benefits more than the bookmaker has typically adjusted for.
Striker absence on one side: If one team's primary scorer is out, BTTS Yes implicitly requires the back-up to step up. BTTS No becomes structurally more likely than the bookmaker adjustment captures.
Take a typical Saturday fixture: Brighton vs Aston Villa, Premier League.
Brighton scoring probability: 80 percent. Villa scoring probability: 90 percent. Probability of both scoring (treating as independent for simplicity): 0.80 x 0.90 = 0.72, or 72 percent. The naive math says BTTS Yes is 72 percent likely.
The bookmaker price on BTTS Yes is 1.50. Implied probability is 66.7 percent. Your edge is 72 minus 66.7 = 5.3 percentage points. Marginal positive edge.
Adjustment for correlation: the two scoring probabilities are not fully independent. When Brighton score, Villa are slightly more likely to also score (they have to chase, opening defensive gaps). The correlation adjustment typically adds 1 to 2 percentage points to the joint probability. Adjusted estimate: 74 percent. Edge: 7.3 percentage points. Closer to the 8 percent threshold but still marginal.
Final decision: pass on the 1.50 BTTS Yes, look for the same fixture at 1.60+ at another bookmaker. If found, place. If not, no bet.
The two outcomes are positively correlated: if both teams score, the total is more likely to exceed 2.5. Bookmakers typically price the combination at a longer odds than the simple product would suggest, but tighten it relative to fully independent outcomes. When you find a bookmaker pricing the combination as if fully independent, it has hidden value.
Typical BTTS + Over 2.5 price on a balanced Premier League fixture: 2.30 to 2.50. Pinnacle margins on the combined market are around 4 percent, meaning the price reflects roughly 40 to 43 percent implied probability. Sharp bettors estimate the true probability at 42 to 46 percent in most cases.
Niche but well-priced for stat-driven bettors. Both outcomes correlate with high-tempo attacking matches. The combined price is typically attractive at smaller bookmakers that have not built combined-market correlation models.
BetBot's daily pipeline scores every fixture across 100+ leagues for BTTS markets. The screening criteria: both teams scoring rate above 70 percent in last 10 matches, both teams conceding rate above 60 percent in last 10, the bookmaker BTTS price implies at least 15 percentage points below the model estimate. Surviving candidates are published as daily BTTS picks.
The full list is at /tips-today. BTTS-specific filtering is at /ai-btts-predictions for users who only want the BTTS subset. The picks include the underlying stats so you can verify the model's reasoning against your own analysis.
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